Roto Hero

My drafts are done so I can share my rankings before yours.  No fluff just rankings down and dirty.  If you know how to use Vlookup, you can insert them into onto the excel I provided in my last post.  Please feel free to comment or ask questions and good luck. 

• 1. Arian Foster
• 2. LeSean McCoy
• 3. Ray Rice
• 4. Aaron Rodgers
• 5. Calvin Johnson
• 6. Drew Brees
• 7. Chris Johnson
• 8. Darren McFadden
• 9. Tom Brady
• 10. Cam Newton
• 11. Larry Fitzgerald
• 12. Matt Forte
• 13. Adrian Peterson
• 14. Matthew Stafford
• 15. Maurice Jones-Drew
• 16. Rob Gronkowski
• 17. Jimmy Graham
• 18. Marshawn Lynch
• 19. Ryan Mathews
• 20. DeMarco Murray
• 21. Andre Johnson
• 22. Brandon Marshall
• 23. A.J. Green
• 24. Greg Jennings
• 25. Victor Cruz
• 26. Steven Jackson
• 27. Jamaal Charles
• 28. Fred Jackson
• 29. Julio Jones
• 30. Roddy White
• 31. Wes Welker
• 32. Steve Smith
• 33. Hakeem Nicks
• 34. Darren Sproles
• 35. Trent Richardson
• 36. Jordy Nelson
• 37. Ahmad Bradshaw
• 38. Michael Turner
• 39. Antonio Gates
• 40. Marques Colston
• 41. Michael Vick
• 42. Demaryius Thomas
• 43. Jeremy Maclin
• 44. Mike Wallace
• 45. Dez Bryant
• 46. Miles Austin
• 47. Percy Harvin
• 48. Brandon Lloyd
• 49. Doug Martin
• 50. Philip Rivers
• 51. Tony Romo
• 52. Frank Gore
• 53. Vincent Jackson
• 54. Vernon Davis
• 55. Jermichael Finley
• 56. Eli Manning
• 57. Aaron Hernandez
• 58. Peyton Manning
• 59. Willis McGahee
• 60. Antonio Brown
• 61. Stevie Johnson
• 62. Eric Decker
• 63. Dwayne Bowe
• 64. Reggie Bush
• 65. Shonn Greene
• 66. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
• 67. Ben Roethlisberger
• 68. Robert Griffin III
• 69. Kenny Britt
• 70. Torrey Smith
• 71. Pierre Garcon
• 72. Robert Meachem
• 73. Fred Davis
• 74. Kevin Smith
• 75. Donald Brown
• 76. Stevan Ridley
• 77. Cedric Benson
• 78. Jonathan Stewart
• 79. Beanie Wells
• 80. DeSean Jackson
• 81. Matt Ryan
• 82. Jay Cutler
• 83. Michael Bush
• 84. C.J. Spiller
• 85. Peyton Hillis
• 86. Isaac Redman
• 87. DeAngelo Williams
• 88. Evan Royster
• 89. Ben Tate
• 90. San Francisco
• 91. Reggie Wayne
• 92. Santonio Holmes
• 93. Denarius Moore
• 94. Anquan Boldin
• 95. Malcom Floyd
• 96. David Wilson
• 97. Sidney Rice
• 98. Darrius Heyward-Bey
• 99. Justin Blackmon
• 100. Greg Little
• 101. Tony Gonzalez
• 102. Jermaine Gresham
• 103. Brent Celek
• 104. Jacob Tamme
• 105. Coby Fleener
• 106. Brandon Pettigrew
• 107. Jared Cook
• 108. Davone Bess
• 109. Titus Young
• 110. Lance Moore
• 111. Laurent Robinson
• 112. Jason Witten
• 113. Rashad Jennings
• 114. Montario Hardesty
• 115. LeGarrette Blount
• 116. Toby Gerhart
• 117. Jacquizz Rodgers
• 118. Mark Ingram
• 119. Pierre Thomas
• 120. Rashard Mendenhall
• 121. Shane Vereen
• 122. Roy Helu
• 123. Michael Crabtree
• 124. Mike Williams
• 125. Matt Schaub
• 126. Andy Dalton
• 127. Andrew Luck
• 128. Pittsburgh
• 129. Baltimore
• 130. Chicago
• 131. Detroit
• 132. Green Bay
• 133. Isaiah Pead
• 134. James Starks
• 135. Brian Quick
• 136. Santana Moss
• 137. Philadelphia
• 138. Seattle
• 139. Houston
• 140. Tim Tebow
• 141. Ryan Williams
• 142. Vincent Brown
• 143. Jahvid Best
• 144. Tim Hightower
• 145. Ronnie Brown
• 146. Dallas Clark
• 147. Mikel LeShoure
• 148. Carson Palmer
• 149. Josh Freeman
• 150. Owen Daniels

Roto Hero's 2012 Fantasy Football Excel Prep

I’ll start off this fantasy football season with “You’re Welcome.” 

For the first time ever I am allowing you all the chance to prep like I do, and of course it is free of charge.  This is the excel spreadsheet that I make every year before fantasy football, baseball, and basketball drafts.  It allows you the opportunity to see the value of experts from all the big leagues, Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, FOX, etc.  in one convenient location.  Having other rankings can help identify Heroes and Villains on the draft board.

The sheet default is from the perspective of Yahoo, since that’s what I play, but if you download it you will be able to filter by your own league settings.  The sheet is fairly straight forward, but there are a few thing to mention.  Columns A-F are the rankings of other fantasy experts.  G is the project Y! rankings.  H is average of all the player rankings.  I is the Y! Rank - Average, which is intended to identify consensus value picks (Positive are valuable, at least on paper).  Next is the Player info and then the 2012 Projected Stats.

 The second page is used for your teams projected value when doing a mock.  Simply put in the players names you draft and the projected values will link in.  See how you can improve your team’s total.  Take with a grain of salt that it is only Y! projected points.  Add and remove positions as needed.

 If anything is unclear feel free to send me message or comment.  Trust this will help you all incredibly with perspective on players. 

Believe It Or Not 

Welcome to post draft fantasy baseball.  Above is the first thing that comes to mind when I thought of believe it or not.  In this article I wanted to take a look at if the surprise hot starts are legit, and the opening failures will last.  Remember if you will that Roto Hero is all about OBP instead of AVG.   

Surprise Fast Starts (Believe they are Superheroes?):

Josh Willingham: BELIEVE.  Willingham has been smashing like the Hulk so far.  5 HRs in 50 ABs, it’s not too surprising so I think he will keep it up.  The AVG and OBP are surely to drop, but he’s for real and a was a target of mine in every draft.   He’ll move down from his top 15 value, but should stay a top power choice.

Carlos Beltran: BELIEVE.  Believe it or not, Beltran is number four right now in OBP leagues.  Like Willingham AVG/OBP is high, but as long as he is healthy he’s a great option.

Kyle Lohse: NOT. Lohse currently ranks just behind Halladay for top SP.  While he will be a serviceable option, I think the he will return to Bruce Banner status sooner than later.

Jason Heyward:  BELIEVE.  Although I do not believe he will maintain his current pace, I was predicting a return to form for him.  He recently was moved up in the lineup, and with his talent he should last.

Yoenis Cespedes:  NOT.  I was actually hyping him before the season and the power is legitimate.  My fear is that soon teams are going to learn how to pitch to him and the power he relies on for value will slow down.  I would try and sell high.

Surprise Slow Starts (Are these bad starts Flukes or are they Fails): 

Adam Wainwright:  FLUKE.  I’ll admit it doesn’t look good right now.  He’s coming off Tommy John and is 0-3, but he swears he is fine health wise.  I think he is a good buy low candidate.

Kevin Youkilis:  FLUKE.  Bobby V thinks it’s motivation, well Bobby V is a joke.  The biggest mystery to me is the lack of walks.  They will return and so will his value.

Adam Dunn: FAIL.  Knowing his OBP past, I wanted him.  Didn’t get him everywhere, but I wanted him.  Him going yard early is a good sign, but I’m about ready to give up on him.

Ichiro Suzuki: FAIL.  He will obviously be better than he is now so wait to ship, but SEA lineup is bad no matter how much they tried to pretend.  His role as the lone bright star is dimishing.

Troy Tulowitzki:  FLUKE.  I didn’t believe he was a first rounder, but he’ll be back to a top SS option soon enough.

Jose Valverde:  FLUKE.  So it won’t be another perfect season for saves.  He’s still a top option for a team that is going to win lots of games.

Eric Hosmer:  FAIL.  I told you so sounds so childish, but I have been saying he was overhyped on draft boards all year.  In the future he is going to be a stud, I just don’t think it will happen for 2012 season.  Don’t drop, especially not in keeper, but don’t hold your breath for dominance.

End of the line for the draft.  Thanks for looking if you have any questions feel free to ask.  Or on Twitter @RotoHero.  Part I. Part II. Part III. Part IV.

This year we played with 8, with even further expanded rosters. I was 3rd pick for 29 rounds of bliss. Our league is 5x5 Roto, but instead of the conventional AVG, we play OBP (I suggest you all do the same), and an innings cap of 1650. (1650 works out to about 6 SPs and 5 RPs for the season).

Out positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL.  

Round 22

1.       Matt Thornton (CWS - RP) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Jesus Montero (Sea - Util) Girls Don’t …

3.       Ubaldo Jimenez (Cle - SP) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Jonathan Broxton (KC - RP) Game Recogni…

5.       Gaby Sanchez (Mia - 1B) DrunkDrafter

6.       Jim Johnson (Bal - RP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Jason Kipnis (Cle - 2B) Clip Show

8.       Jeff Francoeur (KC - RF) Storm VIII/S…

Round 23

1.       Hiroki Kuroda (NYY - SP) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Jose Altuve (Hou - 2B) Clip Show

3.       Jhonny Peralta (Det - SS) Shooting Blanks

4.       Neil Walker (Pit - 2B) DrunkDrafter

5.       Tyler Clippard (Was - RP) Game Recogni…

6.       Francisco Cordero (Tor - RP) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Doug Fister (Det - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Matt Wieters (Bal - C) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks: Johnson.  Peralta.  Both should be good.  Johnosn was the last closer whose job wasn’t speculative.  Happy to have 5 to start in a league that is very active.  Peralta will be there if my worst INF Hardy fails.

Hero Pick: Wieters.  I like both the Francoeur and Fister picks, but Wieters will actually play his value here.  I probably should have taken him, but am still happy with my fills.

Villain Pick: Cordero.  For some reason on our draft day Cordero was launched to 105ish in rankings, even though he isn’t closing.  We had the discipline not to take him early, but considering this could have been a better setup RP or potential closer, bad pick.

Round 24

1.       Melky Cabrera (SF - LF,CF) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Mike Adams (Tex - RP) Girls Don’t …

3.       Dexter Fowler (Col - CF) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Brad Lidge (Was - RP) Game Recogni…

5.       Jordan Schafer (Hou - CF) DrunkDrafter

6.       Brandon McCarthy (Oak - SP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Jair Jurrjens (Atl - SP) Clip Show

8.       Greg Holland (KC - RP) Storm VIII/S…

Round 25

1.       Nick Markakis (Bal - RF) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Mat Gamel (Mil - CI) Clip Show

3.       Torii Hunter (LAA - RF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Jeremy Hellickson (TB - SP) DrunkDrafter

5.       Jose Tabata (Pit - LF,RF) Game Recogni…

6.       Chase Utley (Phi - 2B) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Todd Helton (Col - 1B) Girls Don’t …

8.       Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks: McCarthy. Hunter.  McCarthy is why I waited for some of my SPs.  Other than wins he’ll be awesome.  Hunter is mostly influenced by the fact I can see LAA games, but if he does close to what he did last year, this is still a deal.  Another OF you can hold out for.

Hero Pick: McCarthy.  Best player on the board and he will outproduce many SPs taken before him.

Villain Pick:  Utley.  He will have some value, the question is when.  Unless you have room on your DL, make him go undrafted, he will be more harm than good till we have an idea of when he is back.

Round 26

1.       Colby Rasmus (Tor - CF) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Carlos Lee (Hou - 1B,LF) Girls Don’t …

3.       Brandon Belt (SF - 1B,LF) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Chone Figgins (Sea - 3B) Game Recogni…

5.       Chris Davis (Bal - 1B,3B) DrunkDrafter

6.       David Freese (StL - 3B) Shooting Blanks

7.       Vance Worley (Phi - SP) Clip Show

8.       Kelly Johnson (Tor - 2B) Storm VIII/S…

Round 27

1.       Martin Prado (Atl - 3B,LF) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Johan Santana (NYM - SP) Clip Show

3.       Dustin Ackley (Sea - 2B) Shooting Blanks

4.       Addison Reed (CWS - RP) DrunkDrafter

5.       Rajai Davis (Tor - CF,RF) Game Recogni…

6.       Austin Jackson (Det - CF) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Nyjer Morgan (Mil - LF,CF,RF) Girls Don’t …

8.       Matt Joyce (TB - LF,RF) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks: Freese.  Ackley.  Once again I pranked it.  Freese was a hero in the WS and just of who is around will outproduce Figgins and Davis.  Ackley, was not needed by me but already went yard and shouldn’t have still been there for me.

Hero Pick: Worley.  If I knew he would have been taken, I would have taken him even in the rounds before.  I love my picks, but I think Worley is going to be a hero.

Villain Pick: Figgins.  Taken in front of Freese, I can’t believe it.  I understand the gamble and it’s hard to get SBs at a corner infielder, but if you want to gamble you could do it in a round or too.

Round 28

1.       Jonny Venters (Atl - RP) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       David Robertson (NYY - RP) Girls Don’t …

3.       Mike Aviles (Bos - 2B,3B,SS) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Brandon Morrow (Tor - SP) Game Recogni…

5.       Chris Carpenter (StL - SP) DrunkDrafter

6.       Russell Martin (NYY - C) Shooting Blanks

7.       Logan Morrison (Mia - LF) Clip Show

8.       Justin Morneau (Min - 1B) Storm VIII/S…

Round 29

1.       Jason Bourgeois (KC - LF,CF,RF) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Ryan Madson (Cin - RP) Clip Show

3.       Mike Minor (Atl - SP) Shooting Blanks

4.       Max Scherzer (Det - SP) DrunkDrafter

5.       Fernando Salas (StL - RP) Game Recogni…

6.       Brent Lillibridge (CWS - 1B,LF,CF,RF) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Ian Desmond (Was - SS) Girls Don’t …

8.       Aroldis Chapman (Cin - RP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks: Martin.  Minor.  Martin is exactly why I wait on a catcher.  I got a Yankee and if he fades or someone is hot, it costs me nothing to drop.  Minor is going is a great choice, I have since dropped him to get into the BOS closer sweepstakes and he was grabbed immediately.

Hero Pick: Morneau or Carpenter.  I liked my picks, but both these are great low risk/high reward.

Villain Pick: Madson.  It’s unfortunately easy to pick since he is out for the year.

In an effort to get this out before the season is over the next rounds I am doing analysis for 2 at a time.  Part I.  Part II.  Part III.

This year we played with 8, with even further expanded rosters. I was 3rd pick for 29 rounds of bliss. Our league is 5x5 Roto, but instead of the conventional AVG, we play OBP (I suggest you all do the same), and an innings cap of 1650. (1650 works out to about 6 SPs and 5 RPs for the season).

Out positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL. 

Round 16

1.       Jason Motte (StL - RP) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Brandon League (Sea - RP) Girls Don’t …

3.       Erick Aybar (LAA - SS) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Alex Avila (Det - C) Game Recogni…

5.       Josh Beckett (Bos - SP) DrunkDrafter

6.       Carl Crawford (Bos - LF) Shooting Blanks

7.       Michael Pineda (NYY - SP) Clip Show

8.       Mark Reynolds (Bal - 1B,3B)Storm VIII/S…

Round 17

1.       Miguel Montero (Ari - C) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Huston Street (SD - RP) Clip Show

3.       Tommy Hanson (Atl - SP) Shooting Blanks

4.       Ike Davis (NYM - 1B) DrunkDrafter

5.       Rafael Betancourt (Col - RP) Game Recogni…

6.       Yoenis Cespedes (Oak - CF) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Joe Mauer (Min - C,1B) Girls Don’t …

8.       Matt Garza (ChC - SP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks:  Crawford, Hanson.  I wanted Aybar and after he was taken I had to gamble on Crawford.  He might miss a week or two to start, but he is worth the gamble there.  I got my top SPs early (a lot went fast), but needed more and he had been just waiting for me.

Hero Pick: Crawford.  He could be a bust, but I’m a believer.  Even with the missed time, I think he is a close to a top 100 player.

Villain Pick:  Avila/Montero.  It’s the same pick.  A catcher that won’t play their value.  Mauer will beat them and was taken later.

Round 18

1.       Ricky Romero (Tor - SP) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B) Girls Don’t …

3.       Kenley Jansen (LAD - RP) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Carlos Pena (TB - 1B) Game Recogni…

5.       Kyle Farnsworth (TB - RP) DrunkDrafter

6.       J.J. Hardy (Bal - SS) Shooting Blanks

7.       Chris Perez (Cle - RP) Clip Show

8.       Jayson Werth (Was - CF,RF) Storm VIII/S…

Round 19

1.       Brandon Beachy (Atl - SP) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Cory Luebke (SD - SP,RP) Clip Show

3.       Josh Willingham (Min - LF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Corey Hart (Mil - RF) DrunkDrafter

5.       Anibal Sanchez (Mia - SP) Game Recogni…

6.       Mark Trumbo (LAA - 1B,RF) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Ervin Santana (LAA - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Javy Guerra (LAD - RP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks:  Hardy.  Willingham.  Happy with both.  Just potentially added 60 HRs to my team this late, excited.  Willingham is also an OBP stud.

Hero Pick: Weeks.  I love both my picks, but Weeks went way too late.  I thought about him the previous round but already had my 2B and MI filled.  He will be a value if he misses ¼ of the year.

Villain Pick: Jansen.  The guy thought he was the closer, and might be eventually.  He not a complete waste, but not as strong as the others.

Round 20

1.       Chris Young (Ari - CF) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Cameron Maybin (SD - CF) Girls Don’t …

3.       Brennan Boesch (Det - LF,RF) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Grant Balfour (Oak - RP) Game Recogni…

5.       Carlos Marmol (ChC - RP) DrunkDrafter

6.       Matt Capps (Min - RP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Jaime Garcia (StL - SP) Clip Show

8.       Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B) Storm VIII/S…

Round 21

1.       Neftali Feliz (Tex - RP) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B,RF) Clip Show

3.       Jason Heyward (Atl - RF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Jordan Zimmermann (Was - SP) DrunkDrafter

5.       Sean Marshall (Cin - RP) Game Recogni…

6.       Alejandro De Aza (CWS - CF,RF) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Frank Francisco (NYM - RP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Brett Myers (Hou - SP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Picks:  Capps.  Heyward.  Got a closer with the job outright.  Great.  Yes, it’s that Heyward.  How the might have fallen.  People become scared to take him, so I finally had to do it.  Had to.  Could end up being the pick of the draft, but honestly I’m still concerned.

Hero Pick: Maybin.  Good for 40 bags and won’t hurt you too bad else where.  It should be my Heyward pick though.

Villain Pick: De Aza.  I’m not completely against him, but there are OFs that will be taken in later rounds I like more.

Last week was the draft for my main fantasy baseball league.  Composed of my brothers and friends, I’ve been playing for (wow) six years now, although some of them have been playing fantasy since before it was online.  I can’t believe people would do that either.

This year we played with 8, with even further expanded rosters.  I was 3^rd pick for 29 rounds of bliss.   Our league is 5x5 Roto, but instead of the conventional AVG, we play OBP (I suggest you all do the same), and an innings cap of 1650.  (1650 works out to about 6 SPs and 5 RPs for the season).

Out positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL.

Below are the results for the next five picks of the draft along with my analysis.  You can view Part I.  Just like any other draft it was unpredictable for the most part regardless of how many mock drafts you have done.  Here we go:

Round 5

1.       Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Carlos Santana (Cle - C,1B) Clip Show

3.       Matt Holliday (StL - LF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Josh Hamilton (Tex - LF,CF) DrunkDrafter

5.       Hunter Pence (Phi - RF) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Pablo Sandoval (SF - 1B,3B) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Cole Hamels (Phi - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick:  Holliday.  If you play OBP Holliday is a name that you know.  I didn’t really want to have another OF already (even though we play 5), but I feel very good about him playing value.  Even with El Hombre gone, I am a lot happier taking him in front of Hamilton and Pence.

Hero Pick: Cole Hamels.  Again I like my pick, but Hamels has the potential to beat the Felix, pick I made a full round earlier.  Hamels is also the default winner.  The OF picks are okay.  Paul, Carlos, and Sandy were early.  Zimm I like this late, but he has had his injury problems.

Villain Pick:  Sandoval.  I don’t like Konk or Santana either, but I am not a Sandoval fan.  Sandy is injury risk, has terrible OBP, and might not hit in the heart of a weaker lineup.  Sandy has to be passed on, especially with Zimm still there.

Round 6

1.       Dan Uggla (Atl - 2B) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Alex Rodriguez (NYY - 3B) Girls Don’t …

3.       Dan Haren (LAA - SP) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Brett Lawrie (Tor - 3B) Toyko Rose o…

5.       Zack Greinke (Mil - SP) DrunkDrafter

6.       David Price (TB - SP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Elvis Andrus (Tex - SS) Clip Show

8.       Ben Zobrist (TB - 2B,RF) Storm VIII/S…

My Pick: David Price.  I think he has a chance at the AL Cy Young and I got him late.  Would have preferred Haren, but am happy.  I also think that Price is the end of 2^nd tier of SPs, so was happy I have two at this time.

Hero Pick:  Zobrist.  There are a couple picks I like this round, but Zobrist is my favorite.  I thought about taking Zo even though I already had a 2B since his OBP is awesome and he is good bet for 90-20-90-20.

Villain Pick:  Uggla.  I don’t hate a 2B with Thor like power, but he is a slow starter which is hard to take as a fantasy owner and likely not the pick Zobrist will be.

Round 7

1.       Michael Bourn (Atl - CF) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Stephen Strasburg (Was - SP) Clip Show

3.       Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B) Shooting Blanks

4.       Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B) DrunkDrafter

5.       Jay Bruce (Cin - RF) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Michael Young (Tex - 1B,2B,3B) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Craig Kimbrel (Atl - RP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Starlin Castro (ChC - SS) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick: Youk.  My favorite nickname I’ve heard is from ESPN, The Greek God of Walks.  In previous years Youkilis went as high as the 2^nd round.  He has been hurt in last few years, but I’ll take the risk at 7.  The 3B is great too until Miggy has it.  Even in an off year last year, his OBP was 0.116 better than his average (tied for 4^th best).

Hero Pick:  Youk.  Although the injury risk is there, I took the only player that can finish in the 2^nd round.  I would like Stras if he didn’t have the innings cap.

Villain Pick: Castro.  I am not a Hosmer fan (at least not for 2012), especially with some good 1Bs still to come, but Castro was taken too early (even though he wasn’t reached for).  Castro like many of my least favorites does not put up a good OBP compared to his AVG.  He finished 98 last year for OBP, and I don’t know how much he is going to improve in a weak lineup.

Round 8

1.       David Wright (NYM - 3B) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B) Girls Don’t …

3.       Howie Kendrick (LAA - 1B,2B,LF) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Yovani Gallardo (Mil - SP) Toyko Rose o…

5.       Nelson Cruz (Tex - LF,RF) DrunkDrafter

6.       B.J. Upton (TB - CF) Shooting Blanks

7.       Matt Cain (SF - SP) Clip Show

8.       Jon Lester (Bos - SP) Storm VIII/S…

My Pick:  BJ Upton.  I do my homework to find the OBP steals like Upton.  I needed a bag guy to anchor me and one that hits 20+ HRs is awesome.  Since the draft it looks like he might start on the DL, so I’m not quite as excited, but still content.

Hero Pick:  Wright.  I was very happy to get my SBs with Upton even if he’s on the DL, but Wright has 1^st round upside and should not have still been there.  The team that drafted him loaded up way too much on CIs, even before the Wright pick, but with the value there I can’t blame him.

Villain Pick: Kendrick.  I don’t think it’s a bad pick, just worse than the others.  I think he will play at value here, but that is because of improvement.  You are not benefitting in value.

Round 9

1.       Madison Bumgarner (SF - SP) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP) Clip Show

3.       Lance Berkman (StL - 1B,LF,RF) Shooting Blanks

4.       C.J. Wilson (LAA - SP) DrunkDrafter

5.       Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Jonathan Papelbon (Phi - RP) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       James Shields (TB - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Ian Kennedy (Ari - SP) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick: Lance Berkman.  Everyone thought he was done last year and he wasn’t.  Big Puma has always been a OBP stud.  Last year he finished 22 in our settings.  Picking him reminds me of Konerko being taken, except I took him a few rounds and I think there is more upside.

Hero Pick: Berkman.  I think both Bumgarner and Wilson will be great value pick here, but I think Berkman is going to come close again and I’ll have a 3^rd/4^th rounder.

Villain Pick: Rollins.  I like pick, but the others more.  Rollins is just about at his value last year, and you have to imagine a regression with some age and more so without Utley and Howard for a while.

Round 10

1.       Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - SS) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Alex Gordon (KC - LF) Girls Don’t …

3.       Gio Gonzalez (Was - SP) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Michael Morse (Was - 1B,LF) Toyko Rose o…

5.       Brian McCann (Atl - C) DrunkDrafter

6.       John Axford (Mil - RP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Desmond Jennings (TB - LF,CF) Clip Show

8.       David Ortiz (Bos - Util) Storm VIII/S…

My Pick: John Axford.  I was excited to get a top tier closer a round or too later than the others.  Especially with all the injuries to closers already this year, I’m excited to have one of the elite.

Hero Pick: Desmond Jennings.  Ortiz is always underrated, but Jennings is at a great price here.  He is usually taken before pick 50, but it’s hard to exceed expectation there, but here he’s a steal.

Villain Pick: Cabrera.  I had him last year and it was a value, but this is a classic example of paying for a career year.  Of the group he has the least chance at repeating value.

This week was the draft for my main fantasy baseball league.  Composed of my brothers and friends, I’ve been playing for (wow) six years now, although some of them have been playing fantasy since before it was online.  I can’t believe people would do that either.

This year we played with 8, with even further expanded rosters.  I was 3^rd pick for 29 rounds of bliss.   Our league is 5x5 Roto, but instead of the conventional AVG, we play OBP (I suggest you all do the same), and an innings cap of 1650.  (1650 works out to about 6 SPs and 5 RPs for the season).

Out positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL.

Just like any other draft it was unpredictable for the most part regardless of how many mock drafts you have done.  Here are the first five rounds:

Round 1

1.       Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Matt Kemp (LAD - CF) Clip Show

3.       Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B) Shooting Blanks

4.       Jose Bautista (Tor - 3B,RF) DrunkDrafter

5.       Robinson Cano (NYY - 2B) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Adrian Gonzalez (Bos - 1B) Girls Don’t …

8.       Joey Votto (Cin - 1B) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick: Miguel Cabrera.  With the 3^rd pick I took Miggy and couldn’t be happier.  Coming into the draft I thought Miggy would be gone and I was set on Joey Bats since I love to get a strong 3B.  Bautista is going to hit more HRs, but you can’t get more consistent than Miggy and since the 3B is coming, it was easy choice for me.

Hero Pick (Best):  Miguel Cabrera.  I promise I won’t be self-indulgent every round, but my pick of Cabrera the consensus number 1 with position scarce 3B, with the 3^rd pick is the best value of the round. 

Villain Pick (Worst): Robinson Cano.  I just don’t trust Tulo for some reason, but the worst pick is Cano.  I think he is incredibly talented and plays 2B, but in an OBP he is not nearly as deadly.  He had only a .047 increase from AVG to OBP and I need more from my first pick.  For perspective the best last year was Bautista at a .145 increase.  If we played AVG I would Cano would have been fine.

Round 2

1.       Prince Fielder (Det - 1B) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - CF) Girls Don’t …

3.       Justin Verlander (Det - SP) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Ryan Braun (Mil - LF) Toyko Rose o…

5.       Justin Upton (Ari - RF) DrunkDrafter

6.       Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B) Shooting Blanks

7.       Evan Longoria (TB - 3B) Clip Show

8.       Carlos Gonzalez (Col - LF,CF,RF) Storm VIII/S…

My Pick:  Dustin Pedroia.  I took Pedroia, which was the game plan.  2B that finished 16^th overall for OBP last year.  He is a safe choice was happy to get another scarce position.  Last year he was better than J. Upton, but at 2B instead of the outfield.

Hero Pick:  Ryan Braun.  This is the same owner that took Cano in the first round, redeemed himself with Braun who should have gone in the first round.  If you flip his picks, his team looks like it should.

Villain Pick:  CarGo.  I’m not a huge J. Upton fan, but Carlos worries me too much.  He has the chance to be a 1^st rounder, but I don’t want to gamble with my 2^nd pick.  Also with so many OFs I would rather wait.

Round 3

1.       Hanley Ramirez (Mia - SS) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Jose Reyes (Mia - SS) Clip Show

3.       Curtis Granderson (NYY - CF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B) DrunkDrafter

5.       Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Cliff Lee (Phi - SP) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Roy Halladay (Phi - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Mark Teixeira (NYY - 1B) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick:  Once again according to plan.  It was tough to pass up on pitching, but Granderson finished 3^rd overall in OBP leagues last year.  No I’m not expecting him to duplicate, but he doesn’t have to get my money’s worth.  Great OBP compared to AVG, and even if the power numbers aren’t there again, he’ll be a leader in Runs.  Next year, he will be taken in the first round.

Hero Pick:  Roy Halladay.  Although I thought Curtis would be the pick of the round, but Halladay slipping to the end of the round is the steal.  Potential to be the overall number one player.  Done.

Villain Pick:  Reyes.  I am a big fan of HanRam to rebound, but I’m not with Reyes.  I’ve been happy to never have gambled on him in previous seasons.  Yes, he is a SS, but he’s too much of a risk for a 3^rd pick.

Round 4

1.       Andrew McCutchen (Pit - CF) Uggies vs Yu…

2.       CC Sabathia (NYY - SP) Girls Don’t …

3.       Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B) Baghwan’s Ba…

4.       Tim Lincecum (SF - SP) Toyko Rose o…

5.       Adrian Beltre (Tex - 3B) DrunkDrafter

6.       Felix Hernandez (Sea - SP) Shooting Blanks

7.       Giancarlo Stanton (Mia - RF) Clip Show

8.       Jered Weaver (LAA - SP) Storm VIII/S…

My Pick: Felix the Cat.  I wanted to get a stud SP and did.  My I would have preferred CC for the guaranteed wins.  I consider taking Weaver, again for more wins, but you can help but want the consistency of Ks from Felix.  Other than Ws he’ll be a stud.

Hero Pick: Beltre.  As long as he can stay healthy, he will be a steal.  Per games numbers were sick last year.  He’s still in a great TEX park and potent lineup.  Also 3B talent jumps off a cliff soon.

Villain Pick: Napoli.  I’m a Napoli fan, especially in OBP, but he could have been taken next round and should have.

Round 5

1.       Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B) Storm VIII/S…

2.       Carlos Santana (Cle - C,1B) Clip Show

3.       Matt Holliday (StL - LF) Shooting Blanks

4.       Josh Hamilton (Tex - LF,CF) DrunkDrafter

5.       Hunter Pence (Phi - RF) Toyko Rose o…

6.       Pablo Sandoval (SF - 1B,3B) Baghwan’s Ba…

7.       Cole Hamels (Phi - SP) Girls Don’t …

8.       Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B) Uggies vs Yu…

My Pick:  Holliday.  If you play OBP Holliday is a name that you know.  I didn’t really want to have another OF already (even though we play 5), but I feel very good about him playing value.  Even with El Hombre gone, I am a lot happier taking him in front of Hamilton and Pence.

Hero Pick: Cole Hamels.  Again I like my pick, but Hamels has the potential to beat the Felix, pick I made a full round earlier.  Hamels is also the default winner.  The OF picks are okay.  Paul, Carlos, and Sandy were early.  Zimm I like this late, but he has had his injury problems.

Villain Pick:  Sandoval.  I don’t like Konk or Santana either, but I am not a Sandoval fan.  Sandy is injury risk, has terrible OBP, and might not hit in the heart of a weaker lineup.  Sandy has to be passed on, especially with Zimm still there.

With Spring Training and some injury reports I have updated my rankings for OBP leagues.  Time pressed I have not written new descriptions for each player, but mostly go off of what I had last time.  Enjoy!

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Jose Bautista

3. Albert Pujols

4. Matt Kemp

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Joey Votto

7. Troy Tulowitzki

8. Ryan Braun

9. Prince Fielder

10. Jacoby Ellsbury

11. Robinson Cano

12. Dustin Pedroia

13. Curtis Granderson

14. Justin Verlander

15. Clayton Kershaw

16. Roy Halladay

17. Hanley Ramirez

18. Justin Upton

19. Cliff Lee

20. Ian Kinsler

21. Carlos Gonzalez

22. Evan Longoria

23. Mark Teixeira

24. Jose Reyes

25. Andrew McCutchen

26. CC Sabathia

27. Tim Lincecum

28. Felix Hernandez

29. Jered Weaver

30. Adrian Beltre

31. Cole Hamels

32. Giancarlo Stanton

33. David Wright

34. Ryan Zimmerman

35. Matt Holliday

36. Josh Hamilton

37. Hunter Pence

38. Dan Haren

39. Kevin Youkilis

40. Ben Zobrist

41. Dan Uggla

42. David Price

43. Brett Lawrie

44. Jay Bruce

45. Paul Konerko

46. Alex Rodriguez

47. Mike Napoli

48. Nelson Cruz

49. Desmond Jennings

50. Zack Greinke

51. Elvis Andrus

52. Craig Kimbrel

53. Carlos Santana

54. Brandon Phillips

55. Matt Cain

56. Jon Lester

57. B.J. Upton

58. Michael Bourn

59. Jonathan Papelbon

60. Mariano Rivera

61. John Axford

62. Lance Berkman

63. Stephen Strasburg

64. C.J. Wilson

65. Adam Wainwright

66. Yu Darvish

67. James Shields

68. Madison Bumgarner

69. Michael Young

70. Starlin Castro

71. Michael Morse

72. Shin-Soo Choo

73. Shane Victorino

74. Pablo Sandoval

75. Yovani Gallardo

76. Michael Cuddyer

77. Howie Kendrick

78. Alex Gordon

79. Jason Heyward

80. Jimmy Rollins

81. Asdrubal Cabrera

82. Ian Kennedy

83. Matt Moore

84. Heath Bell

85. Carlos Beltran

86. Nick Swisher

87. Drew Storen

88. Buster Posey

89. Brett Gardner

90. Rickie Weeks

91. Carl Crawford

92. Aramis Ramirez

93. Brian McCann

94. Mat Latos

95. Josh Johnson

96. Tommy Hanson

97. Drew Stubbs

98. Corey Hart

99. Daniel Hudson

100. Eric Hosmer

101. Ryan Howard

102. Joe Mauer

103. Dee Gordon

104. Matt Wieters

105. Ricky Romero

106. Brandon Beachy

107. Jayson Werth

108. Matt Garza

109. Michael Pineda

110. J.J. Putz

111. Paul Goldschmidt

112. Ichiro Suzuki

113. Alex Avila

114. Miguel Montero

115. Ike Davis

116. Gio Gonzalez

117. Logan Morrison

118. Jose Valverde

119. Andrew Bailey

120. Joel Hanrahan

121. Brian Wilson

122. Chris Carpenter

123. Jordan Walden

124. David Ortiz

125. Josh Beckett

126. Derek Jeter

127. Chris Young

128. Adam Jones

129. Freddie Freeman

130. Cameron Maybin

131. Billy Butler

132. Andre Ethier

133. Dustin Ackley

134. Mark Reynolds

135. Huston Street

136. Carlos Marmol

137. J.J. Hardy

138. Yoenis Cespedes

139. Melky Cabrera

140. Cory Luebke

141. Shaun Marcum

142. Dexter Fowler

143. Brandon Morrow

144. Nick Markakis

145. Jesus Montero

146. Erick Aybar

147. Martin Prado

148. Coco Crisp

149. Jeff Francoeur

150. Jordan Zimmermann

151. Ervin Santana

152. Jason Motte

153. Jason Kipnis

154. Kendrys Morales

155. Lucas Duda

156. Josh Willingham

157. Ubaldo Jimenez

158. Jemile Weeks

159. Adam Lind

160. Anibal Sanchez

161. Alexei Ramirez

162. David Freese

163. Sergio Santos

164. Rafael Betancourt

165. Joe Nathan

166. Alejandro De Aza

167. Yunel Escobar

168. Neil Walker

169. Doug Fister

170. Hiroki Kuroda

171. Johnny Cueto

172. Max Scherzer

173. Jhonny Peralta

174. Austin Jackson

175. Brandon League

176. Kyle Farnsworth

177. Brett Myers

178. Chris Perez

179. Javy Guerra

180. Adam Dunn

181. Emilio Bonifacio

182. Peter Bourjos

183. Torii Hunter

184. Mike Moustakas

185. Jaime Garcia

186. Clay Buchholz

187. Matt Capps

188. Frank Francisco

189. Jim Johnson

190. Mike Minor

191. Vance Worley

192. Derek Holland

193. Ian Desmond

194. Carlos Pena

195. Ryan Roberts

196. Edwin Encarnacion

197. Brennan Boesch

198. Jason Kubel

199. Jeremy Hellickson

200. J.P. Arencibia

201. Jose Tabata

202. Neftali Feliz

203. Mark Trumbo

204. Geovany Soto

205. Matt Joyce

206. Gaby Sanchez

207. Ryan Dempster

208. Colby Rasmus

209. Mitch Moreland

210. Brandon McCarthy

211. Matt Thornton

212. Grant Balfour

213. Sean Marshall

214. Chase Utley

215. Jhoulys Chacin

216. Russell Martin

217. Brandon Belt

218. Greg Holland

219. Alex Rios

220. Tim Hudson

221. Kelly Johnson

222. Yadier Molina

223. Bud Norris

224. Wandy Rodriguez

225. Justin Masterson

226. Carlos Quentin

227. Chris Heisey

228. Edwin Jackson

229. Stephen Drew

230. Edinson Volquez

231. Carlos Lee

232. Jair Jurrjens

233. Mike Carp

234. J.D. Martinez

235. Alfonso Soriano

236. Erik Bedard

237. Ryan Doumit

238. Chase Headley

239. Colby Lewis

240. Alexi Ogando

241. Angel Pagan

242. Delmon Young

243. Ted Lilly

244. John Danks

245. Chris Sale

246. Rafael Furcal

247. Scott Baker

248. Tim Stauffer

249. Vladimir Guerrero

250. Vinnie Pestano